2019-2022 Investment Outlook

BNDES has a long tradition of sector analysis. For the first time, BNDES publishes an English version of its investment forecasts for the next four years. Historical data are attached.

The current survey provides investment projections for the period 2019-2022 for 19 sectors of the Brazilian economy, covering 100% of infrastructure investments and about 85% of industry. Historically, the survey is one of the Bank's most accessed publications, with a high degree of accuracy between the expected and the realized investments.

The study reveals that:

>> Expectations regarding investment performance in the economy have improved. After a long period of decline, there are signs of a more consistent resumption of investments, driven by an acceleration of growth at the end of the four-year period.

>> Performance across sectors is diverse, however, with average real growth of 3.9% per year in the period, compared to 2008.

>> Investments in the sectors analyzed reached R$ 1.1 trillion in the four-year period (2019-22), which represents an increase of 2.7% over the previous BNDES’ survey (BNDES Investment Outlook 2018-2021).

>> The result mainly reflects investments in the industry, especially in the oil and gas segment. In infrastructure, strictly speaking, there is no significant change between the average annual performance in the two surveys. However, it is worth noting the acceleration of investments in 2021 and 2022, especially in the energy sector. 

> The analysis highlights a sectorial possible process of deleveraging in the mining and telecommunications segments, reducing a company's high debt and cash constraint situation.

> Public policies, changes in the regulatory framework, and private sector infrastructure concession programs also positively influence investments, while the fiscal situation of states and municipalities remains an inhibiting factor.